2026 First Round Playoffs Predictions.

Toronto Raptors - Cleveland Cavaliers:

Toronto's guard situation is a mess.

They also play too many different bigs, instead of focusing on a few.

I don't think they know how to build a more cohesive roster yet.

Cleveland, perhaps they'll play better with less external expectations.

Cleveland in 4.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Denver Nuggets:

Minnesota has made some great midseason moves.

I'll take Minnesota in 7.

Minnesota wins 1, 3, 5, 7. 

Not sure if Denver has lost 3 home games in a series before, but there's a first for everything. 

Actually I remember a series in the 80s where Denver had a lot of home losses, I'll have to look that up later.

Atlanta Hawks - New York Knicks:

It's too hard to build a team around Jalen Brunson.

Jalen Johnson is the best player in this series.

Atlanta in 7.

Atlanta wins 3, 4, 5, 7.

Houston Rockets - Los Angeles Lakers:

Houston's talent should win out.

Houston in 6.

Houston wins 2, 3, 5, 6.

I had changed my pick of Houston vs. Los Angeles to Los Angeles in 4, after learning Kevin Durant wouldn't play game 1.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics:

Philadelphia always looks like a team that is inconsistent, and where they are less than what they could be.

Boston hasn't found their stride yet, but they are deep and better defensively too.

Boston in 4.

Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder:

I like Phoenix as a regular season team.  They are not ready for this.

Oklahoma City in 4.

Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons:

I think there will be a lot of close games.  Games 5 points or less.

Eventually the depth of Detroit should win out.  This might go 6 games.

Detroit in 5, Orlando wins game 2.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs:

San Antonio does not do game 1's very well, historically.  

I want to pick 1 7 game series, so I'll pick this one.

I don't think game 7 will be close, but I hope I'm wrong.

San Antonio in 7.

San Antonio

Portland

San Antonio

Portland

San Antonio

Portland

San Antonio

I'm a little late but I'll say who I would've picked in game 1 then go with how the rest of the series will go DETROIT VS ORLANDO Honestly would've had Orlando winning game 1. If there's ever been an 1 vs. 8 upset then this is the one but I'm not necessarily calling it that way. I'm still gonna go Detroit in 7 Game 1 Orlando and I saw it coming Game 2 Detroit Game 3 Orlando Game 4 Detroit Game 5 Detroit Game 6 Orlando Game 7 Detroit BOSTON VS. PHILADELPHIA Really want to see a good series but just don't think it's happening Game 1 Boston. Would've picked this one although maybe not that much of a blowout Game 2 Boston Game 3 Philly Game 4 Boston Game 5 Boston NEW YORK VS. ATLANTA Would love to see Atlanta make it a series and the organization is better off without El Debarge but the Knicks seemed to be focused and ready to roll Game 1 New York. Game 1 went the way I thought. ATL makes runs but not enough Game 2 New York Game 3 Atlanta Game 4 New York Game 5 New York CLEVELAND VS. TORONTO I think Toronto will make this a good series. Their crowd is good for at least one win up there Game 1 Cleveland. Decent game 1. Went the way I thought Game 2 Toronto Game 3 Toronto Game 4 Cleveland Game 5 Cleveland Game 6 Toronto Game 7 Cleveland OKC VS. PHOENIX Would love for OKC to be proven vulnerable but just not feeling this one either Game 1 OKC. Didn't think it would be that bad Game 2 OKC Game 3 OKC Game 4 Phoenix Game 5 OKC SAN ANTONIO VS. PORTLAND Portland didn't seem as overwhelmed as I thought. I'm gonna bank on this one being somewhat competitive Game 1 SA and went more or less how I thought Game 2 SA Game 3 Portland Game 4 Portland Game 5 SA Game 6 SA DENVER VS. MINNESOTA This one should be fun although I think the....

Need better shot distribution.

Only two guys had double figure attempts.

www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202604190DET.html

Wow, no sweeps by @Trueblood in this first round. Kind of think there's going to be at least one.

Hope you're right about Cleveland and Toronto being a long series.

Atlanta better win more than one game. They need to keep proving it, putting the past in the rear view mirror. Only way to do that is to win a series.

If there is, it will be OKC over Phoenix and maybe Boston over Philly although I can't see Philly bowing down in front of the home folks

The Eagles did in last year's postseason. Although maybe it wasn't a bow down, as a close loss.

A bow down would be this game:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200305150LAL.html

I'm sad I missed this game. Only game of the series I missed. I probably had a 5PM class, and probably some stuff due the next day.

As much as I VCRed games, I probably decided I shouldn't watch TV that night after class and after dinner. Well maybe other than Friends. Ok, that's probably what happened. Decided there was time for Friends, but not both Friends and NBA.

That game was beyond awesome. I remember doing the wash at halftime then flying in to put clothes in the dryer before the 4th quarter started

Little did we know that we'd be in for an even bigger treat 13 months later

That game needs to be re-aired or something. I've always been sad that I missed it.

Plus, some of my friends who criticize Duncan for his lack of scoring, well, that one is an exception.

I do think they're right though, Duncan didn't quite have the averages per game as he could have, when you consider his talent level.

Plus I feel like Duncan almost abandoned his bank shot, in the 2010s. I tried to watch for it and it seemed like he didn't do it anymore.

Perhaps if I can ever find that 2003 game 6, I'll see the bank shot.

(Don't tell me if he does one, I want to be surprised if I ever get a chance to watch that game.)

The first time I realized that TD was gonna be a great one was when he was banking shots left and right vs. Seattle in the playoffs of his rookie season

I think I accidentally buried the lead today. Give me your thoughts on the game twos from Monday. I'll get back to this thread later.

Game 2's on Monday were both awesome. I was rooting for the Nuggets but you have to take your hat off to the Wolves for the comeback. The thing that stood out more than anything is how Gobert gave Jokic fits down the stretch. Jokic still had his customarily great game but Gobert threw him off a bit down the stretch as he blocked a shot and forced a turnover

Hawks were great as well. Loved CJ dialing up the way back machine although he almost choked down the stretch. Knicks need to tighten things up or else they'll be seeing visions of Haliburton

Loved seeing CJ play well too. Best joke I heard was that the Hawks turned into the Atlanta SeaHawks against the Knicks during the comeback. Some analyst on the radio said that Minnesota was built for Denver, especially since Tim Connelly came from Denver. Denver was supposed to be the next great team, so Minnesota was built to try and beat them. Back then, people didn't see OKC coming. Although, you can now say that Minnesota vs. San Antonio would be intriguing too. I really like Rudy Gobert. Especially his story, a late 1st round pick turning into a multi time DPOY. I had a Jazz fan friend who saw Gobert during his first summer league, and said that guy is going to win a DPOY. I did see Gobert during his rookie year, when he was a 3rd stringer. So I can appreciate his accent. On another forum, this is what someone said about him in a November 2013 game against the Nets: "The only fun I found myself having was when Rudy Gobert was in the game. He didn't do a lot, but you can see how awesome he could be. The kid just dwarfs everyone. My son and I were laughing, making in game commentary with a french accent with his every move." People blame Gobert for the Clippers series win against the Jazz in 2021. Don't think it's Gobert's fault, it's the entire Jazz team fault. Clippers didn't hit all of their 3's against Gobert. Plus, giving up 3's is just how the game is played now, unfortunately. I say unfortunately, because I don't like the style shift of taking lots of 3's that's happened in the NBA. Boston is another example of an unwatchable team with their 3's, especially when they miss like they have in many playoffs series. Also, if you....

NBC made a mistake with their broadcast scoreboard: https://www.si.com/nba/knicks/nbc-broadcast-knicks-timeouts-issue-hawks I like seeing NBC make mistakes. I don't think the change to NBC has been for the better. On top of that, watching Peacock on demand is very annoying. I noticed this during the Olympics, but it's also true for NBA games. They clutter the on-demand with forced 90 second ads. You can't just freely browse. They insert them at so many different hashmarks that you have to go through every hashmark's ads if you want to skip to further in the game. ABC / ESPN don't do this. Nor does....

I do like the broadcasters. Just not the overall presentation, nor user experience.

Remember, one of my earliest complaints was that the NBC logo was on two places during the NBC games. One, in the upper right corner (colored). Another, in the middle of the on screen scoreboard, in between the team names.

We don't need two logos on at the same time. And that colored one in the upper right corner is going to damage TVs.

ESPN / ABC have their logo in transparent. TNT had theirs in a combination of white and transparent. Those are much more TV screen friendly.

Also, again, I wonder if NBC was cheap with their analysts and hosts.

Remember the story I mentioned from the 90s, when NBC wanted to interview Barkley after a game? He rebuffed them, so Marv Albert said "We tried to interview Charles Barkley, but he wanted to be paid. So in typical NBC fashion, we'll interview so-and-so (I can't remember who").

McGrady and Carmelo Anthony seem like they were cheap hires.

I haven't seen Prime's hosts, since I don't have Prime. But all of their selections for hosts seem to have more charisma, insight, and just better overall speaking ability. Maybe they were paid more too.

That, combined with Prime's lack of forced commercials on demand, makes Prime feel like a better product.

I don't like the move in terms of accessibility, but I can at least applaud the effort and presentation.

Meanwhile, Peacock feels like Juno or Net Zero, if you understand the analogy.

Ugh.

https://www.kgw.com/article/sports/locked-on/lo-portland/blazers-show/trail-blazers-new-owner-tom-dundons-cost-cutting-approach-draws-national-scrutiny/283-4b11b6c3-c9da-4a47-9e07-b0ed521a5f87

I am actually ok with no playoffs T shirt. I'd rather have fans in their own gear, which is going to be higher quality and look nicer than those free shirts.

But as for all of the other accusations, not a good sign.

I've been thinking about this. The good thing is that he seems to have turned around his hockey team although the NHL is different from the NBA. What I mean is that the NHL has a hard cap so he's not forced to spend a ton. What he needs to do is invest in coaching, front office and scouting in the NHL

The problem in the NBA is that you need to exceed at least the first apron in order to be a championship contender. I have no problem with the t-shirts, early checkouts of hotels and things of that nature. What I would be worried about is whether or not he's willing to pay the tax

Yeah, I'm not gonna change my opinion of the horrible trio of Melo, TMac and VC. While I realize that you have to pay for peacock, I can't help but think that they threw together a lousy trio as a result of NBC being free tv

If you want to see 4 guys that know their stuff and have good chemistry, you have to pay for Prime and see Dirk, Nash, BG and UD. Much better presentation and knowledge of the game plus like you said, there's charisma and humor

It's funny how bad the Gobert draft was at the top but then you had gems like Giannis and Gobert towards the middle and end of that 1st round

I first knew Rudy would be great when France upset Spain in the WC. Keep in mind that Spain was still loaded with the Gasol brothers, Rudy Fernandez, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio and a few others. Gobert blocked everything in sight and helped secure the victory. This helped the American squad as well. Beating Spain in Spain could've been tough but with them out of the way, the road was smoother

I think not allowing two way players to experience the playoffs in person, and not allow non players like team photographers and such to attend the playoffs, is a problem.

It's about setting the culture, and that includes non players too. Fans are more engaged when those non player team personnel can create content that fans can consume.

As for not allowing late checkouts of hotels, depends on what the difference is. If it's 11am vs. 12pm, not a big deal. I guess if they have to wait until 3pm for a flight, hotels usually. watch your luggage anyways even after you check out, so I think that's just a small inconvenience for team personnel, not a big one.

With all of that said, a lot of this is hearsay. He's been the owner for 3 weeks. Let's see what the real truth is over a longer time span. Like a few months, or 1/2 a season for next year.

Hence my Juno / Net Zero analogy. You got the comparison, right? Do you remember those?

I need to rewatch that France vs. Spain game. Was that in 2013?

Would be fun to see some of those players, knowing how their future careers would play out.

This is true. While I agree about the culture thing, the journalists who have been covering this seem to be nitpicking a bit. That being said, you would think that an owner would go out of his way to make a strong first impression then slowly implement these things. As they say, first impressions go a long way but yeah, let's see how this plays out

This was 2014. Gobert had a year under his belt but nobody at the time knew what type of player he would become. That game against Spain was sort of his coming of age moment

Yes indeed. Reminds me of my first solo trip tours of NBA arenas in 2005. The Mets, ironically similar to this season, got off to a bad start so the post had a headline of "Mets zero"

LOL!

I complain about cheesy headlines, but that is a good one.

The cheesy ones are these:

• ESPN: "Austin Powers The Way" after a big playoffs game by Austin Crochere

• ESPN: Anytime the Nets do something, it's "Net Gains" or "Net Losses".

I probably had a longer list, during the days when the ESPN forums were still up.

Are there stats for all-time playoffs win % for players? Same with series winning %.

Let's say minimum of 140 games for players. And for series, 26 series.

Trying to filter it for all time great players with longevity.

Great 3rd quarter by the Pistons and Cunningham.

Have the Clippers, in the Leonard era, ever had a defensive quarter like that? Or at least the 30 - 3 stretch.

In spite of having an allegedly superior defensive player, in Leonard?

Or, maybe that's the point, in that it takes a team. Which still leads back to the point, why haven't the Clippers been able to build a defense like that?

Ausur Thompson, JaVonte Green, Ron Holland, Beef Stew.

I also don't think Leonard has been an all defensive player since leaving San Antonio.

Sounds like Atlanta got a defensive stop to win the game!

I don't remember which player was on the Hawks broadcast after the game, but I heard CJ McCollum say "hell of a f***** game" to the player being interviewed.

Timberwolves broadcasters said they should get free chicken if Rudy makes two FTs.

A few minutes later, they referenced Lawler's Law when Minnesota got to 100.

Great game. NAW and Kuminga chased down the loose ball. Kuminga credits Draymond Green with showing the ropes of help defense. Give Draymond an assist for the Hawks win

I hope they gave proper credit to the inventor of Lawlor's law

Yes, they did. I'm pretty sure they did. They also said it's true some YY% of the time, then a few seconds later said they made that number up.

I'm glad they had fun with it. And it was cool to hear that reference. I wouldn't have heard that if I had picked the Denver stream.

But I had done the Denver radio stream (through League Pass) for game 1, so thought I would do Minnesota for game 3.

Nice, good to hear that. First time I've heard Kuminga say something. A lot has been said about him, but I've barely heard directly from him.

Lawlor's had a great rate when scoring was down and teams didn't reach 100 as much. Now that just about every game has both teams reaching 100, the rate is probably down a bit although it would be neat to see the % of how often first to 100 wins

Ironically, these playoffs are seeing scoring down a bit

This site hasn't been updated since 2025.

https://lawlerslawtracker.com/seasons/

WTF is going on with these awesome sites no longer being updated?

Why isn't the sum of W's and L's the same every season?

There's 1,230 games every season.

2014 - 2015 has 828 W, 51 L for 879 total games.

2024 - 2025 has 912 W, 129 L for a total of 1039 games.

Oooh, I forgot about the premise. There's games where neither team hits 100.

Ok, I'm going to find out how many total games per year invoke Lawler's Law:

2024-25: 1,041

2023-24: 1,187

2022-23: 1,206

2021-22: 1,124

2020-21: 996

2019-20: 1,009

2018-19: 1,155

2017-18: 1,064

2016-17: 1,066

2015-16: 991

2014-15: 879

2013-14: 922

2012-13: 796

2011-12: 559

2010-11: 828

2009-10: 860

2008-09: 847

2007-08: 861

2006-07: 797

2005-06: 729

2004-05: 738

2003-04: 519

2002-03: 614

2001-02: 630

2000-01: 622

1999-00: 741

1999: 277

1997-98: 612

1996-97: 711

1999 was the lockout year. Not surprised that there were only 277 games where someone scored 100. Granted, there were only 50 games that year but still, that's less than 500 prorated over an 82 game season

@david, how do I embed the YouTube Shorts?

64 - 70, Cavs vs. Raptors.

Kenny Smith's daughter got married yesterday, so Smith was a DNP. He said he watched Denver vs. Minnesota on replay.

Shaq and Barkley called BS, about him really finding time to watch the game. Memes came in about Smith watching the game during the wedding, or in his hotel bed.

Barkley also asked, about Smith's daughter's husband, "you think he can tackle me?"

LOL.

Smith's dauther's husband, played in the NFL, as did his brother. Terrell Edmunds and Tremaine Edmunds were actually drafted in the same year.

Victor Wembanyama will play in the Spurs vs. Trail Blazers game 4.

Portland had a large lead.

Now it's tie game 74, end of the 3rd.

I'm scared for Portland.

Are the diagonal stripes in the paint and key, a Goofball Court?

That's actually their regular court. The diagonal stripes in the paint are basically supposed to fall in line with how they have diagonal stripes on their uniform. I don't mind it as those are unique to Portland's normal home, road and alternate uniforms as I refuse to memorize what the editions are

Unfortunately, we have seen too many throwback courts in these playoffs. If the Wolves and Sixers want to go back to the old 90's look then do it but make up your mind. A throwback court once or twice a year is fine but having it be your entire theme of the post season is tacky. If that look is so great then re brand. Regardless, make up your mind

Back to the actual action on the court, I saw the Spur comeback a mile away. I wish I had made a prediction on this board when it was halftime

Also, did you see how Wemby played in the 2nd half? NOW THAT'S HOW A BIG MAN SHOULD PLAY! None of that hogging the ball and dribbling under the legs garbage that's meant for your guards. He rim ran and guess what? He caught six lobs and dunked them all

He protected the paint. And guess what? He blocked 6 shots in the 2nd half

Rim run, hit open 3's, protect the paint, hedge out and help on defense when need be, set screens and so on. When he did that, they outscored the Blazers by a lot

I'm still waiting for a season when Wembanyama has a FG% of at least 56%. Since he's a center.

I also think 70%, which usually only the Rudy Gobert, Mitchell Robinson, and DeAndre Jordan types do, is possible.

Even though he shoots a lot more than then, he's also taller and more skilled than them too.

For the courts, if they're adding stripes to it, then it's not their normal court.

The ones from 2002 - 2007 are the best to me:

https://boards.sportslogos.net/topic/90217-nba-court-database/page/100/

I like the stripes on the jerseys, but leave the for the jerseys, not the court.

This ruined the perfect series I had going. So now I can't call a perfect series in any of them this round. Although I really want to do it for a full 7 game series, which this was in my predictions.

He should save that for the dunk contest.

My dunk contest lineup:

Victor Wembanyama

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Mac McClung

LeBron James

Donovan Mitchell

Aaron Gordon

Stephon Castle

VJ Edgecombe

Russell Westbrook

Not as big of a name, but Malik Monk can be good.

You may be right. I didn't watch the Blazers enough this year and when I did, they had the stripes so I merely assumed it was their normal floor. I guess my take is that if they wanted to make it their normal floor, I would have no objection given that it fits their brand

Mitchell was barely getting above the rim when he won the dunk contest. Understandable given his height but it lacked the power that usually makes for good dunks

Giannis and Lebron are too old as is Westbrook and Gordon

I love the idea of Monk though. Gets way above the rim and dunks with finesse and power on his in game dunks. He and Edgecombe would be great

Agree, the branding is very confusing.