Lance Stephenson Stats Discussion/Analysis

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Agent0
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Lance Stephenson is 25 years old. There was a pattern of improvement from 11-12 (21 years old) to 13-14 (23 years old), which makes sense for a young player. Purely production wise, based on what we've seen from many years of the NBA and many players, 14-15 was likely an outlier poor season. 13-14 could be an outlier season too, but that depends on the rate of production we see this season. If 13-14 is an outlier, then his true baseline rate of production would most likely lie somewhere between 12-13's and 13-14's production.

So if that is the case, then Lance's baseline per 36 production would be:

12-13 ppg / 5-6 rpg / 4 apg

...and his baseline scoring and other efficiency:

46-48% FG / 33-35% 3PT / 54-55 TS% / ~106 Ortg

That's a solid player if you're also getting defense out of him. That's a bit above average Ortg, and above average TS%.

A production rate of ~12/6/4 per 36 is great for a utility type player. Assuming ~27 mpg for him, we're talking about something like 9-10 ppg / 4-5 rpg / 3 apg, which are solid numbers for the minutes.So if we can get about 9/4/3 from Lance in about 27 mpg this season on decent efficiency and no major incidents, then it is a success.

Of course we can't be expecting the same production as his year in Indiana if he isn't playing 35 mpg, that wouldn't make sense.

The major problem with the writer's article is that they do what some people do, which is pick and chose stats without context to try and prove something that isn't necessarily the reality.

1) Say's he can't shoot and cites his percentages from last season. The problem with this is that we have a 156 game sample size from the previous two seasons where he has 47.8% FG, 34.3% 3PT. Lance is not a great shooter by any means, but last season isn't representative of his shooting ability either.

2) PER is not a be all, end all stat, it's just a little summary stat of purely statistical production. Lance the previous two seasons has had a decent enough PER, average of 13 or so, but supposedly also impacts on defense, something not measured by PER. So you can have an overall above average player with a PER below 15, so again, need to understand the stats you are quoting and contextualize them.

3) Doesn't average double digits in scoring. So? First of all he's a career 26 mpg player since he played an average of 10 mpg his first two seasons. Career numbers are rarely a representation of the player at the moment unless they are guy who started at a very high level. Imagine someone arguing about another player being better than Bledsoe and saying "Bledsoe is a career 10.8 ppg scorer" Okay, cool, and? Why is that relevant to the current player? Lance improved as a player from his first days until now, so his career numbers aren't really a relevant thing to point out. Secondly his scoring rate is in double digits for every 36 minutes (12.1 pts/36), which is fine for the type of player he is.

4) FT%, he is not an impressive FT shooter for a guard, but citing his 47% FT shooting from 3 seasons ago doesn't mean much. Better off citing his 63% from last season even.

5) Defensive win shares and Drtg ARE a direct product of the teams defense. I've said it many times, individual Drtg is a pretty useless stat. Anyone on a good defensive team will generally have a good Drtg if per minute they can get good defensive rebounds, steals and block stats (eg: David Lee). That's what individual Drtg is. It is team Drtg, and it gets lower (which is better) based on how much of those stats the player collects per minute. Again, this is understanding stats.

Any sort of win shares stat is affected by games played. Lance played 17 fewer games last season than the previous two, so his defensive win shares would be less even if he statistically was credited for more defensive impact. Also, since individual Drtg is directly influenced by team Drtg, his Drtg SHOULD have gone down since Charlotte was an inferior defensive team to the Pacers teams. DRPM would be a more useful stat. Individual Drtg seriously says nothing except "this player grabs defensive rebounds and/or blocks shots and/or gets steals".

Lance might or might not be good, but the author did not really support his ideas there, and certainly not with the stats he quoted in the context that they were quoted. It actually looks like the author didn't have a good grasp of the stats and how to use them in context.


toohipcliptoslip
CNS MVP X2
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That's what I said but as usual Agent0 said it more eloquently.

As far as Ball Dominant I didn't mean who has the ball a lot like Kobe or DWade. I meant when it's side out who catches the inbound and runs down the floor with it and who waits to get the ball. DWade can't do the former well. He can do the later. The former is a major strength of CP3 and the President. Chalmers rarely brought the ball down and when he did it was to set things up so LBJ could run the offense. Having CP wait is a waste of talent.

As far as bench scoring if Jamal goes we have FOUR reliable scorers, CP, ,BG ,JJ and PP. CP is injured and we have to restrict PP's minutes it's called OTUOA. Not a Samoan word. It means Our Thumbs Up Our As*es.

. (LBJ is the forgotten and maligned president. Please see his contribution to Civil Rights and he was from a Confederate state and flew the Stars and Bars. There are good people everywhere.)

addendum: Speaking of Samoa I once was in a bar in Pago Pago. I should have left when I noticed that the chairs and tables were bolted to the floor Unfortunately this was the third bar I'd visited and bad Samoan beer over ruled good sense. Anyway I almost got into a bar fight against five Samoans but I wasn't worried. I realized that if I peed my pants they would leave me alone or maybe slip in the puddle. I lived to tell about it.


david
Site Admin
Posts: 13101
votes: 51

Nice post Agent I've split it off from the other topic into its own thread and blog entry.


Mistwell3
Clipper 6th Man
Posts: 169
Location: Los Angeles
votes: 4

When Lance was playing in his contract year, and with some of the best players in the league as a starter (two conditions), he played well.

When he was no longer playing for his contract, and was playing with a second unit of average players, he played poorly.

These are both far more relevant factors in my opinion than averaging seasons and calling things outliers based on stats. Playing for a contract, and quality of players he's playing with. Those are the kinds of consistent factors that impact a lot of young players the same as they impact Lance. In fact they can impact older players too.


Agent0
CNS MVP X3
Posts: 11308
votes: 95

Mistwell3 wrote:
When Lance was playing in his contract year, and with some of the best players in the league as a starter (two conditions), he played well.

When he was no longer playing for his contract, and was playing with a second unit of average players, he played poorly.

These are both far more relevant factors in my opinion than averaging seasons and calling things outliers based on stats. Playing for a contract, and quality of players he's playing with. Those are the kinds of consistent factors that impact a lot of young players the same as they impact Lance. In fact they can impact older players too.

This is quite possible, but a good thing for the Clippers is that he is technically playing for a contract again this season. In Indiana, he was effective in the minutes he played without George, about 9 mpg, he performed well, 48% FG / 38% 3PT / 75% FT shooting, 16.8 pts/36 and 5.9 ast/36 since he was more of a lead player when he was with bench guys. That's about 702 minutes, so a good sample size of minutes without George.

Charlotte became a bad fit for a couple of reasons, first, he started off the season injured, and that set him back, second being that they expected him to be more of a lead player when in fact he's a complimentary player who can play a primary ball handling role with a bench, but is a secondary ball handler with a starting lineup. Third is that Charlotte has bad spacing and a poor offensive system which is also post-play centric due to the presence of Al Jefferson and generally very stagnant. Fourth is possibly what you alluded to, which is that maybe he didn't work as hard as he should have during the off-season since he had his big contract now, but I can't say anything for certain there of course. So with the other role players that fit better around him, he can produce. Do the Clippers have that? We'll see.


toohipcliptoslip
CNS MVP X2
Posts: 7391
votes: 52

It is also possible that he will have something to prove. His stock went down a lot and maybe this is a chance at redemption aka kiss my tushie. This is a good place to do it. He has the chance to be the driving man on the bench, a driving force on D and should get lots of minutes. Put up or shut up.


cleepers
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There's an interesting article on NBA.com about Paul Pierce's role on the team. It's about a month old, but I must have missed it. Some great quotes from PP himself about wanting to bring the Clippers their first title, but one point the writer makes about Pierce's potential influence on Stephenson stuck out for me... "The kinds of big shots he made for the Wizards last postseason will make a difference next spring for the Clippers. So too will the example that will be established for Stephenson every time Pierce refuses to complain about a shortage of shots or touches." http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/ian_thomsen/07/21/paul-pierce-ho pes-to-lead-clippers-over-the-hump/index.html I have....


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