(Apologize in advance for the length. TLDR: The Clippers don't get into the paint much; the clippers need to get into the paint more).
First time poster, long-time admirer of the site, so props to everyone for creating an engaging community. Like all of you, I watched the Clips/Blazers game Wednesday and came away happy the Clippers won, but worried about how their offense performed throughout the game. So I decided to do some digging.
What I saw Wednesday was an offense that struggled and sometimes downright avoided getting into the paint. To see whether the eye test was betraying me, I used data from vorped.com. I analyzed every NBA team's shot distribution between 2's, 3's and paint scoring. (I can provide a spreadsheet version I made if you're interested in seeing all teams distributions).
What I found was troubling. Only 3 teams in the NBA take less than 40% of their shots inside the paint. Those three teams are the New York Knicks (36%), the Los Angeles Clippers (36.1%) and the Portland Trailblazers (38.1%). The league average is 45%.
In total, the Clippers shoot 36.1% of their shots in the paint, 32% of their shots in midrange, and 31.2 percent of their shots from three-point. That might sound like a balanced attack, but it's not an efficient way to score against tougher opponents. It's an unhealthy diet for a team with deep playoff aspirations.
(It's notable that Portland, another top western conference team and Wednesday's competition, shoots similar splits. The Blazers are a bit of an outlier because of LaMarcus Aldridge's mid range game, where he shoots nearly 60% of his shots, but the following criticisms could stand for the Blazers team as well).
However, the clippers are on pace for over 50 wins this season and their offense is rated highly in advanced metrics, so what's the big deal?
The problem is that this data provides evidence that the Clippers, as a team and as individuals, are not taking enough efficient shots at the rim, which is where great teams initiate and finish a large part of their offense. The Clippers simply aren't valuing or exploiting the NBA's prime real estate.
Without stronger paint presence, the Clippers can't get easy layups, draw fouls, or force the kind of defensive rotations that lead to consistent scoring and wearing down of opposing defenses. To put it another way, opponents would be happy to give the Clips this shot distribution. It's not something other teams fear.
Most top teams take much better advantage of the paint: The Warriors take 45% of their shots there despite being a "3-point" team. The same goes for San Antonio. Pop's shooting zealots take 48% of their shots in the paint and only 26.3% from 3-point range. Bud's Hawks, another team dubbed as jump-shooters, take 46% of their shots in the paint and 30% from behind the arc. Memphis predictably takes over 50% of their shots down low.
If there was any doubt that the Clippers have become a jump-shooting team, we need only compare them to their playoff competition. That 36% frequency against a league average 45% could be damning if it's how the team performs in the playoffs. Jump shooting just isn't a reliable primary weapon of an NBA offense.
But right now, the Clippers are winning because they're taking, and making, a ton of those shots. And that's working because of personnel. Between CP3, Redick, and Crawford, the Clips are equipped with great jump-shooters who are content to settle for those looks.
But they're also equipped with bigs that have no business taking many jumpers. Theoretically, guys like Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan should even out the mid rangers, but that's not the case here.
Blake is taking 45% of his shots outside the paint this year and only making 38% of them. It's not inherently bad for Blake to work on his jumper. For years fans have complained that if only Blake developed a jump shot, he'd be unstoppable (I think that's more true of a polished post game). These are the growing pains of that development.
However, he's taking way, way too many at the expense of the team's paint presence and in the process, looks more stoppable than ever. Teams aren't jumping out on him when he threatens to shoot and giving him a lane to drive in the process. It's midway through the season and it's hard to imagine his jump-shot percentage rising enough to scare teams in the playoffs.
Likewise, CP3 isn't playing as the slasher the Clippers need. He's only taking 24.2% of his shots in the paint this season, converting only 50% of them and is drawing fouls at a career-low rate. It's worth noting that Steph Curry's improved slashing and finishing have been an important addition to the Warriors attack and his MVP-level season.
However, Paul is hitting his mid range shots at an otherworldly rate of 50% as they consume 45% of his shooting diet. But those shots don't rotate offenses or affect the whole floor in the same way driving the paint does. (Note: CP3 should not stop shooting mid range shots. He's too good at that, but there needs to be more balance).
The bigger issue, however, is with the system as much as it is with the players. Since 2012-13 (Vinny's final year), the Clippers have taken fewer shots in the paint each season. Here's the breakdown of shot frequency in the paint for the last 3 years:
2012-13: 46.8%
2013-14: 41.6%
2014-15: 36.1%
This decline either means Doc's scheme encourages the team to shoot more jumpers, or the team is incapable of executing a plan for scoring down low. Either way, it's a blunder of strategy and a lack X's and O's intelligence. Smart offensive coaches like Pop, Carlisle and Bud know how to put their players in the best positions to score. While there's obviously some fudging of exactly how much a team needs to eat in the paint, it's certainly more than the Clippers are averaging.
To me (and please feel free to disagree), when the only team shooting less in the paint is the Knicks, it's an incrimination of the coach and the system, especially when you have one big who literally can't shoot, another who has historically been a monster in the paint and a point guard who can supposedly get anywhere on the floor.
It's up to Doc to turn this around and get his players executing a better offense. I don't think the sky is falling and the Clippers have a good record, but things look different in the playoffs and if the Clippers continue to play like this, they'll struggle for anything but a nice regular-season finish. There's hope on the horizon though...Austin Rivers is on the way.
Good luck against Cleveland tonight!
